Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: positive announcements are issued from multiple capitals. Immense energy is expended on managing particular approaches. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from across the border, a capacity afforded by up-to-date information. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to counter approaching aerial threats streaked across the sky – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense activated: several firings deployed against a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably provided by partner states. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: maybe the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a automatic firearm fired at a drone in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely Western-made equipment. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its objective.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, devastation and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a need that European nations are clearly incapable to fill in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from US administration generated strong feelings, discussion and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from Washington follows the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This trend will, no doubt, persist.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington functions according to a assumption understood by international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government believes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to surrender the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the situation will not change more in its favour in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing people and territory but preventing a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: political desires to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not move to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to eliminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on continued Western support.
