Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but very few politicians or advocates are willing to participate even with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. They authors two articles that seek neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, duties, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an recognition of the concept that there could be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed here and somebody will eventually lose but each side has has important lessons to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
